MORGAN STANLEY: These 19 stocks could get cut in half — or worse

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Morgan Stanley has released the stocks its analysts think could lose more than half their value in the next 12-18 months.

These “secularly challenged stocks,” as the bank calls its Wednesday report, are quite diverse, but a major portion of the list are retail chains.  The industries Morgan Stanley analysts are most bearish on span from mall-based clothing stores like Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle, to big box chains like Target, and even financial services companies like Western Union.

“Our economics team’s longtime base case of a synchronous global recovery, modest increases in inflation pressures, and a gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation has now been embraced, by and large, by the consensus.”

While the report is quite pessimistic, it’s important to note that the possible drops are analysts’ bear cases, or worst-case scenarios for the companies.

To compile the list, Morgan Stanley’s equity research team started with the full list of stocks its analysts rate as underweight. The bank then focused on stocks with an “unfavorable risk-reward skew,” looking for stocks where the cons outweighed the pros.

Here are the 19 stocks Morgan Stanley says stand to lose the most from secular pressures in the next 12-18 months:

19. Tenneco

Ticker: TEN

Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials 

Downside to bear: 53.1%

Market cap: $3.41 billion

Year-to-date performance: +0.03%

Source: Morgan Stanley

Get realtime TEN charts here>>

18. BorgWarner Inc.

Ticker: BWA

Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials

Downside to bear: 54%

Market cap: $11 billion

Year-to-date performance: +28.93%

Source: Morgan Stanley

Get realtime BWA charts here>>

17. United Parcel Service

Ticker: UPS

Sector: Transportation

Downside to bear: 54.1%

Market cap: $103.8 billion

Year-to-date performance: +3.03%

Source: Morgan Stanley

Get realtime UPS charts here>>

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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