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Gambling is a fickle pursuit — one minute you’re on top of the world, and the next everything is falling apart.
Case in point: In the midst of the best gambling season of my young career, last week I was just one game away from the worst gambling Sunday of my life, going an absolutely dismal 3-9-1 against the spread. There are excuses I could make — I lost two games by just a point each and another game by just two. Swing those the other way and we eek out a winning record.
But that’s not what the fates allowed, and one thing about gambling is that once your money is down, it’s down, and whether or not you get it back is only up to the gods.
So we’re back on the horse this week. Despite sustaining tough losses last week, we’re still ahead on the season, and with the Patriots and Browns both on bye this week, I won’t be pulled in by the Siren’s song that is betting against and on them respectively. Let’s find some winners.
All lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
LAST WEEK: 3-9-1
Buffalo Bills (-3) at New York Jets (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET)
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The pick: Jets +3
The logic: When these two teams met in Week 1 it was viewed as a laughable matchup. With both teams now outperforming expectations, it actually makes for a surprisingly feisty divisional matchup on a Thursday night. That said, it’s a tough one to pick. I’d say my best bet on this game is Under 42.5, but if I have to take a side, give me the home dog.
Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The pick: Broncos +7.5
The logic: CBS Sports has eight writers and personalities that they cite as “experts” who also pick against the spread on a week-to-week basis. One of my gambling rules is that whenever all eight of them agree on a game, I go the other way. This week they all picked the Eagles to cover.
It’s admittedly a tough spot for the Broncos, playing their third straight road game against the best team in football right now. But the Eagles are likely due for a let-down game and the Broncos defense is solid even if the team has been in something of a free-fall recently.
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
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The pick: Titans -3.5
The logic: It’s been announced that Joe Flacco will start on Sunday, but I find it almost impossible to believe after the brutal hit he took from Kiko Alonso last week. Watch that hit again and then think about putting money on that guy at quarterback. I hope Flacco feels better but there’s no way I’m backing him just a week removed from getting demolished.