Italy, Germany Sunday Event Risk: Market Impact

Euro-U.S. dollar (EURUSD) options traders are nervous ahead of the national elections in Italy on Sunday March 4th, and the German Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) internal vote on whether to enter into another grand coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel.  The outcome of these two events in Europe risks reverberating through numerous markets.  They will also determine how easy or difficult it will be for French President Emmanuel Macron to achieve a deepening of the European Union integration with a banking union and fiscal transfers that could help the eurozone weather the next economic crisis.  It could also influence the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.  The results will also impact Europe’s fiscal orientation and might nudge it towards the U.S. path of greater fiscal, and less monetary, stimulus.

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