Options Markets Complacent Ahead of La Niña

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After a head fake last year, the La Niña weather phenomenon may be coming back for real this time (Figure 1).  Cooler-than-normal water is pooling along the Equator on the Americas side of the Pacific Ocean (Figure 2).  La Niña is associated with cooler, wetter conditions along the U.S.-Canadian border; warmer, drier conditions in much of the southern United States, and impacts weather patterns worldwide.  Past La Niñas have roiled agricultural markets, sending prices on wild rides, often lower amid exceptionally high levels of volatility.  

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