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Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21

The trade war that could stem from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum is unlikely to affect GDP, freeing the Fed to raise rates at its March 21 meeting.

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China’s Li Keqiang Index: Headwinds for Commodities?

The official growth rate of China is of intense interest to economists and investors worldwide.  The gross domestic product of the world’s second largest economy is also subject to a certain degree of skepticism.  Observers ponder over its unusual stability and unfailing ability to fall within the consensus estimate.  Among …

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Trade and Political Discord Could Impact Equities, Dollar

From U.S. tariffs on metals to the Brexit negotiations and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, political and trade discord could impact equities and the dollar.

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Crude Oil’s Next Move? Clues from Soybean Oil

As we observed in our past research , soybean oil prices often lead the movement in crude oil prices.  The past year has been no exception.  Even as WTI crude prices soared from $42 to $66 per barrel between June 22, 2017, and January 25, 2018, soybean oil traders weren’t …

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Italy, Germany Sunday Event Risk: Market Impact

Euro-U.S. dollar (EURUSD) options traders are nervous ahead of the national elections in Italy on Sunday March 4th, and the German Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) internal vote on whether to enter into another grand coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel.  The outcome of these two events in Europe risks reverberating through …