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Global Trade Disputes Take Center Stage in 2018

Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day, providing a deeper dive into complex topics and framing the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.

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The Treasury Options Volatility Force Awakens

Until the equity market’s abrupt correction in late January, Treasury options were in a state of deep slumber, with volatility near record lows for 2Y, 5Y, 10Y and 30Y Treasuries.  Over the past month, Treasury options volatility has staged a mini-spike that seems significant by recent standards (Figure 1) but …

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Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21

The trade war that could stem from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum is unlikely to affect GDP, freeing the Fed to raise rates at its March 21 meeting.

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China’s Li Keqiang Index: Headwinds for Commodities?

The official growth rate of China is of intense interest to economists and investors worldwide.  The gross domestic product of the world’s second largest economy is also subject to a certain degree of skepticism.  Observers ponder over its unusual stability and unfailing ability to fall within the consensus estimate.  Among …

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Trade and Political Discord Could Impact Equities, Dollar

From U.S. tariffs on metals to the Brexit negotiations and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, political and trade discord could impact equities and the dollar.