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Fed: End of an Era of Economists at the Helm?

Dr. Janet Yellen’s term as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Fed) System ends in early 2018.  While she could be reappointed for another four-year term as Chair, reading the tea leaves in Washington D.C. suggests a scenario where we may see a person from a …

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VIX-Yield Curve: At the Door of High Volatility?

We freely admit: Figure 1 is probably the strangest chart that you will ever see, at least in finance.  You may be wondering: did they throw blue spaghetti noodle on paper for inspiration and then write an economics article about it?  Or, have they spent too much time with disciples …

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Gold: Showing Strength Despite Rate-Hike Signals

More than any other factor, changes in expectations for U.S. interest rates play a key role in determining short-term movements in the price of gold, and to a lesser extent silver and platinum. During much of the past two years, the correlation between the daily change in the prices of …

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Wheat: Will High Inventory Further Dent Prices?

Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter wheat prices began a long-term bear market over five years ago in July 2012.  Since then, prices have fallen by more than 50%.  The good news for wheat growers is that while prices are depressed by 2007-2017 standards, at $4.30 per bushel, they …

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UK: What to Expect from a Prime Minister Corbyn

Since losing its parliamentary majority in June 2017, British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party has been hanging by a thread, propped up by coalition partner, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. Even under the best of circumstances, keeping the coalition’s grip on power was a difficult task. …