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Equities: Comparing Russell 2000 Versus S&P 500®

Since the Russell 2000 began tracking the performance of small-cap stocks in 1979, the index has broadly matched, if not slightly exceeded, the performance of the more venerable S&P 500® index of large cap stocks (Figure 1).  While the two indexes’ overall performance has been similar and their correlation generally …

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Oil: Short-Term Versus Long-Term Price Scenarios

U.S. shale technology is an evolving science that will continue to boost output even as fuel efficiency achieved through electric vehicles depletes demand.

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Europe: How Markets View Unity vs. Disintegration

Opposing forces championing integration versus disintegration are assailing Europe.  In the past two years both sides have scored important victories.  Britain’s Brexit, Spain’s Catalonian independence referendum and the entry of the nationalist Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party to the German parliament, or Bundestag, were victories for proponents of lesser European …

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What Could Fire Up America’s Anemic Inflation?

Global competition and technological advances are keeping U.S. inflation below the Fed’s 2% target, but could significant government spending help boost it?

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Options Markets Complacent Ahead of La Niña

After a head fake last year, the La Niña weather phenomenon may be coming back for real this time (Figure 1).  Cooler-than-normal water is pooling along the Equator on the Americas side of the Pacific Ocean (Figure 2).  La Niña is associated with cooler, wetter conditions along the U.S.-Canadian border; …