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Oil Markets in Supply-Demand Tug of War

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been stuck in a wide yet fairly well-defined trading range of $42 – $55 per barrel since September 2016.  In the near-term, that range might shift modestly upward to $48 – $62, and drift lower over the long term by $10 to …

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Abenomics: A Work in Progress After Five Years

Japanese voters returned Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party to power for a third term with over 60% of the seats in the lower house of parliament on Sunday October 22.  The vote was an endorsement of Abe’s “three arrows” approach to reviving Japan’s economy though monetary policy, fiscal …

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Equities: Comparing Russell 2000 Versus S&P 500®

Since the Russell 2000 began tracking the performance of small-cap stocks in 1979, the index has broadly matched, if not slightly exceeded, the performance of the more venerable S&P 500® index of large cap stocks (Figure 1).  While the two indexes’ overall performance has been similar and their correlation generally …

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Oil: Short-Term Versus Long-Term Price Scenarios

U.S. shale technology is an evolving science that will continue to boost output even as fuel efficiency achieved through electric vehicles depletes demand.

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Europe: How Markets View Unity vs. Disintegration

Opposing forces championing integration versus disintegration are assailing Europe.  In the past two years both sides have scored important victories.  Britain’s Brexit, Spain’s Catalonian independence referendum and the entry of the nationalist Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party to the German parliament, or Bundestag, were victories for proponents of lesser European …