Wheat: Will High Inventory Further Dent Prices?

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Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter wheat prices began a long-term bear market over five years ago in July 2012.  Since then, prices have fallen by more than 50%.  The good news for wheat growers is that while prices are depressed by 2007-2017 standards, at $4.30 per bushel, they remain higher than levels between 1997 and 2006 when prices fell below $3.00 per bushel (Figure 1).  What concerns many wheat growers, however, is the level of inventory.  Ending-stocks-to-use ratios have rarely been so high (Figure 2).  Will the level of inventories further pressure prices and send wheat below $4.00, or even $3.00 per bushel?

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